500 e FED's August FOMC meeting minutes have not been given a definite date for the asset purchase program to be reduced. But the unemployment rate, which is the primary target for the end of the program, falls to 7.4% in the past month, causing the FED to interpret it as taking a step in September. It is at the top of the worrying markets that the US 10-year-old treasuries will reach 2.89% and the continuation of the uptrend is expected. The real concern is that the Fed is skeptical that it could overcome the rise in interest rates. The upsurge in volatility index Vix shows us these worries. It is summarized the inconvenience of the markets that the rate of increase from 14,91 level to 15,94 level in 1 day. But since June's approach to Vix's level of 25 * has been approached, the process is beginning to be accepted within expectations. 500 e
Although we think that Vix is an important part of showing the worries, the most important dynamic that affects the world's markets is the significant decline in the dollar index (DXY) asset purchasing program and the risk of the expanding liquidity volume on the market. BOVESPA has experienced a decrease of 17.30% since the beginning of the year. India's Nifty Index is down from 12.98 at daytime. Table 1 shows the changes in the stock market of emerging economies from the beginning of the year to the present. BİST 100 seems to be relatively optimistic compared to India and China with a loss of -9,03%. However, given that the asset purchase program started 1 year ago (QE3), emerging markets tend to turn around before QE3. The most important reason is that the liquidity created by the purchase of assets is moving toward the emerging markets. But in the other case it is the first address. That is why there is a serious movement in the emerging markets. According to Turkey seem like a drop in other countries have kept more limited than the same period last year and 8% of the decline has occurred above creates the possibility of increasing the momentum can be maintained in the coming days. We reiterate that there is not much chance of the 50.000 level that we mentioned in the past. 70.01X) level breaks, the start of stop / loss levels is one of the factors that may accelerate the decline. 500 e
It also shows that the currency basket will rise above the 2.30 level and the USD / TL parity above the 1.97 level will test the 2.00 level. Although it is an important development that the CBRT has announced that it will receive 100 million USD per day on a regular basis, it can not be considered as a radical measure that the USD can ignore the fire against TL. The interest rate changes made in the corridor by 50 points cause the Central Bank to exhibit a distant view from the market dynamics even though it provides the possibility to move. Although it is waiting for the FED's step to take a serious action, inflation increases the acceleration of the price, leading to a distancing from the financial stability as well as away from the price stability. 500 e
Technically speaking, the USD / TRY parity is just below the 1.98 level, continuing its search for a historic record. Although it seems likely that there will be a resistance at 1.98 level, it may be the case that this level breaks over 2.00 level. According to Fibonacci opening, 2.05 level will be a strong resistance. If this level can not be determined, parity can be expected to return to 1.94. But the macro facts may be ignored / expected to rise above the 2.05 level with the rise. This level may cause the CBRT to take more serious measures. 500 e
One of the longest recessions in the eurozone was one of the factors that strengthened the euro. In addition, the favorable course of events excited the European side. PMI data rose to 50.5 for the first time in two years. Another positive development was the downward movement of public debt. But unemployment that can not be avoided prevents the European economy from reviving. The high unemployment rate and the inability of Europe to tolerate the trade imbalance and over-dependence on Germany show that we will start to talk about structural problems in Europe over the long term. But the fact that the FED's exit from the asset purchasing program has been under discussion since the beginning of this period can be considered as a factor preventing the EUR / USD from pulling up the parity to below 1.20 in possible USD appreciation. The liquidity and wealth effect created by the FED's regular monthly $ 5 billion USD is another reason why the dollar depreciates against the EUR. If the FED starts to reduce its asset buying schedule, the EUR / USD will move downwards as the Dollar index will gain momentum. A flat move between parity levels 1.32-1.3415 until the September FED decision is announced. 500 e
Although we think that Vix is an important part of showing the worries, the most important dynamic that affects the world's markets is the significant decline in the dollar index (DXY) asset purchasing program and the risk of the expanding liquidity volume on the market. BOVESPA has experienced a decrease of 17.30% since the beginning of the year. India's Nifty Index is down from 12.98 at daytime. Table 1 shows the changes in the stock market of emerging economies from the beginning of the year to the present. BİST 100 seems to be relatively optimistic compared to India and China with a loss of -9,03%. However, given that the asset purchase program started 1 year ago (QE3), emerging markets tend to turn around before QE3. The most important reason is that the liquidity created by the purchase of assets is moving toward the emerging markets. But in the other case it is the first address. That is why there is a serious movement in the emerging markets. According to Turkey seem like a drop in other countries have kept more limited than the same period last year and 8% of the decline has occurred above creates the possibility of increasing the momentum can be maintained in the coming days. We reiterate that there is not much chance of the 50.000 level that we mentioned in the past. 70.01X) level breaks, the start of stop / loss levels is one of the factors that may accelerate the decline. 500 e
It also shows that the currency basket will rise above the 2.30 level and the USD / TL parity above the 1.97 level will test the 2.00 level. Although it is an important development that the CBRT has announced that it will receive 100 million USD per day on a regular basis, it can not be considered as a radical measure that the USD can ignore the fire against TL. The interest rate changes made in the corridor by 50 points cause the Central Bank to exhibit a distant view from the market dynamics even though it provides the possibility to move. Although it is waiting for the FED's step to take a serious action, inflation increases the acceleration of the price, leading to a distancing from the financial stability as well as away from the price stability. 500 e
Technically speaking, the USD / TRY parity is just below the 1.98 level, continuing its search for a historic record. Although it seems likely that there will be a resistance at 1.98 level, it may be the case that this level breaks over 2.00 level. According to Fibonacci opening, 2.05 level will be a strong resistance. If this level can not be determined, parity can be expected to return to 1.94. But the macro facts may be ignored / expected to rise above the 2.05 level with the rise. This level may cause the CBRT to take more serious measures. 500 e
One of the longest recessions in the eurozone was one of the factors that strengthened the euro. In addition, the favorable course of events excited the European side. PMI data rose to 50.5 for the first time in two years. Another positive development was the downward movement of public debt. But unemployment that can not be avoided prevents the European economy from reviving. The high unemployment rate and the inability of Europe to tolerate the trade imbalance and over-dependence on Germany show that we will start to talk about structural problems in Europe over the long term. But the fact that the FED's exit from the asset purchasing program has been under discussion since the beginning of this period can be considered as a factor preventing the EUR / USD from pulling up the parity to below 1.20 in possible USD appreciation. The liquidity and wealth effect created by the FED's regular monthly $ 5 billion USD is another reason why the dollar depreciates against the EUR. If the FED starts to reduce its asset buying schedule, the EUR / USD will move downwards as the Dollar index will gain momentum. A flat move between parity levels 1.32-1.3415 until the September FED decision is announced. 500 e
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